🥈 Global Silver Refining & Trade Analysis

US vs China Capacity & Trade Flows | Latest Available Data: 2024

USGS 2024 World Bank WITS Korea JoongAng Daily OEC
🏭 Refining Capacity vs Actual Production (2024)
⚠️ DATA DISCREPANCY DETECTED
China claims 60-70% of global refining capacity (~15,000-18,000t) But produces only 5,910t (35-40% utilization) → Suggests "capacity" includes industrial fabrication, not just 999 bullion
🌍 China's Silver Ore/Concentrate Imports by Country (2024)
1.7M
Total MT (Gross)
$5.57B
Total Value
89%
Global Share
📥 China's Refined Silver Imports (2023)
Note: Japan dominates refined silver supply (77%), primarily silver powder for industrial electronics manufacturing.
📤 China's Refined Silver Exports (2024)
🚨 CRITICAL DISCREPANCY: USA Direct Imports
China → USA direct: 338 kg (essentially ZERO) China → Hong Kong: 4,224 tons (99.5%) Hong Kong → ?: Re-export data masked US Imports (reported): 5,800 tons/year Source: Mexico (51%), Canada (18%), Korea (8%) → Chinese silver likely routed through HK/Mexico
⚠️ Major Data Discrepancies & Methodology Notes

1. Capacity vs Utilization

China claims 60-70% global refining capacity but only produces ~6,000t. Global silver production is ~26,000t/year. If capacity were truly 15,000-18,000t, utilization is only 35-40%, suggesting "capacity" figures include industrial fabrication capabilities beyond 999 fine bullion refining.

2. Ore Weight vs Silver Content

China imported 1.7 million MT of ore/concentrate in 2024, but this is gross weight with silver content ranging from 100g to several kg per MT. Actual silver extracted estimated at 3,000-4,000 tons only.

3. The Hong Kong Intermediary

China exports 99.5% of refined silver to Hong Kong (4,224t), but official US imports from China are near zero. US imports 5,800t annually from Mexico, Canada, and Korea—likely including Chinese-origin silver re-exported through these hubs.

4. US Capacity Opacity

USGS publishes US production (2,400t) but does not publish nameplate capacity figures. With 24 refiners operating (2024), estimated capacity is ~3,000t+, but utilization rates are unpublished.

📊 Data Summary Table

| Metric | China | USA | Notes | |--------|-------|-----|-------| | 2024 Production | 5,910t | 2,400t | US: 1,200 primary + 1,200 scrap | | Est. Capacity | 15,000-18,000t* | ~3,000t+** | *Disputed **Estimated | | Global Capacity % | 60-70% claim | ~10-12% | China claim vs actual unclear | | Ore Imports 2024 | 1.7M MT ($5.57B) | Minimal | 89% of global ore imports | | Refined Exports | 4,600t (Jan-Nov) | N/A | 99.5% to Hong Kong | | Refined Imports | 3,300t (2023) | ~6,000t | China from Japan (77%) |